I’ve been thinking about this for 1822(MX, PNW, etc): How much is running your minor for an extra Operating Round (at the beginning of the game) worth?

For simplicity — Let’s assume that all the minors are identical¹. They will run for $30 (20+10) with an ‘L’ train and $40 (20+20) with a ‘2’. So getting your minor in an earlier stock round is worth at least $15 more. After all, you will get one extra round of payment ($15), plus the company will also pocket $15 more. Additionally you will also make the jump from $15 to $20 one OR earlier; but as Barbie says “Discount rates are hard, let’s go shopping for rolling stock.”

Any company requires 3 ORs to convert it’s ‘L’ to a ‘2’ (The company has $40 after purchasing a train, and keeps $15, so $55 after 1 OR, $70 after 2 ORs, and $85 after 3 ORs, which lets it convert). But that assumes that you have time before the L-trains rust. Starting in SR 1 will be fine, SR 2 should be fine, SR 3 is a bit touchy and depends how many trains are exported. But we can safely say the longer you wait, the bigger the risk of losing the ‘L’, which is presumably catastrophic and (at a minimum) a waste of money.

(Minors started after the first ‘2’ comes out can keep extra money over the $100 minimum bid, which mitigates the risk, but also costs the president extra money anyway).

Other benefits:

• The extra OR means one extra track build (or building cube) to head towards a concession/associated minor/destination/anything of interest. This build could also be aimed at annoying other nearby minors before they start, but we’ll focus on positive goals.
• Minor companies always move up in stock price, which means they will be worth more when absorbed. This seems more like a positive than negative, but I’d have to think about ’22 MX vs ’22 PNW more concretely.
• Your strategy is more “concrete” and crystalized. (This could be a downside as well, but it often isn’t).
  • You could snap up the concession you want cheaply because its speculative for anyone else.
  • You might be able to use a private company instantly instead of simply keeping it as potentially useful (you could have a ‘2’ that could attach a pullman, or run an permanent L trains, or use some building cubes/port/special build) and your opponent would get less value from the thing, which might let you win something more cheaply.

There costs are mainly the opportunity cost of any auctions you cannot win (and these can be significant), as well as the loss you take from bidding over face value.

But just labelling these, how much should we see. If we assume a 5p game and 4 starting minors, it is seems clear that they should all have a premium of at least $15, and probably more².

Similarly, how much should a ‘better’ minor be worth? Let’s assume it simply starts at a $30 city. This is not simply an extra $5 per OR; this minor can upgrade its ‘L’ into a ‘2’ train in 2 ORs instead of three, which will bump it up $10 one OR faster. (There’s that pesky discounting again). So again, this clearly should go for at least $5 more (since you’ll break that even in the first OR), but probably at least $10 or $15 (and maybe much more). It also places later companies more at risk of not upgrading their ‘L’ trains, so the mere fact that this company is in the first SR affects the rest of the companies.

A surprisingly complex problem … still thinking about it.

1. Assume each carriage is pulled by a perfectly spherical cow. ︎
2. Since companies could be shared “evenly” with four players, whether there is a premium depends on group think. In theory in 5p only one player might be willing to pay more, which would put them ahead of those who didn’t get a minor in OR 1, but behind those he didn’t bid up. Hmmm. ︎

As of this writing I only have a few games in each of them, so I don’t have enough info on how to win; but I feel like I have some good advice on how to lose. I figure these are probably “more true than false” but not 100% true. As in anything, it’s situational.

1. Undervalue the special trains — The 1822 family is all about the auctions, so if you get the auctions wrong that’s a problem in any case; but the special train privates are valuable. They (usually) don’t count against the train limit, they let you pay out on your first OR. You can withhold all the other trains and pay out the special (or vice versa) to effectively withhold without taking the stock hit. Getting the SR1 “5” train private should cost …. but means you can run your first major company balls out — you’ve got a permanent coming!
2. Too few minors — Early money is always good and these are the best early money around, but …
3. Too many minors — The minors are much better “bang for the buck” than concessions, but also ticking time bombs. If you can’t absorb them in time you’ll be on the hook for a five train for each (or at least one to shuffle around, losing stock value). Instead of “Too Many Minors” you may also suffer from “One minor that’s very out of the way and you can’t link up with.”
4. Running out of cubes — Particularly at 5p, putting a cube on a private “just in case” may be a problem. Sure, some things are better than others, but seeing someone win a minimum bid (or two) because you are out of cubes hurts. (There is a secondary thought to sometimes start a bid high not only to speed up the game, but to make sure that others have an extra cube which will ensure that nothing else goes cheaply).
5. No money in SR2 — It’s not so bad if its just one person, but if multiple people spend it all in SR1, there will be bargains galore.
6. Build a great company but only get 30-40% of it — Usually the result of “too little early money.”
7. No E Train — These allow for huge end game jumps. Getting a permanent 5/6/7 by itself usually isn’t enough. The special trains allow for a non-stock killing withhold (as do mail routes, etc).
8. Timing Oopsies — Mis judging how long it will be until Ls die, or not pulling in your private companies and accidentally missing out on a certificate slot. (The major timing oopsie is the “Too many minors” having to eat an extra train).

I’m sure there are more …. perhaps I should do a roundtable on ’22, but for now just post them in the comment.